Poll of Newly Registered Voters Shows Saban in Lead

Phone survey includes voters registered since 2004 election, cellphone users

In striking contradiction to an earlier ASU/Cronkite poll of “likely voters,” a new poll of “newly registered voters” shows that Dan Saban holds a commanding lead in the race for Maricopa County Sheriff among this group. The ASU poll did not include any of the 487,108 voters who have registered since the November 2004 Sheriff’s race. These newly registered voters make up 28 percent of Maricopa County’s voting population.

In a telephone survey conducted October 24-30, 54 percent of newly registered voters preferred Dan Saban over the Republican incumbent. 31.7 percent said they would vote for Arpaio, and 14.3 percent were still undecided. The telephone survey of 454 “newly registered voters,” conducted for the Saban for Sheriff campaign, asked respondents: “If the election for Maricopa County Sheriff were held today, for whom would you vote: Dan Saban, Joe Arpaio, or are you undecided?”

This is in almost direct contradiction to the ASU poll because the methodologies used were different. The ASU poll did not include people who used a cellphone as their primary telephone. According to Bruce Merrill of the ASU/Cronkite poll, that group accounts for between 20-30 percent of telephone users. This group also tends to be younger than land-line users.

Both polls surveyed Republicans, Democrats and Independents based on their percentage of the voting population, but the ratios are different from when “likely” voters voted in 2004. Then the percentage of Republicans was higher in the voting population. The ratios among “newly registered” voters are completely different, with Democrats making up 29.7 percent, Republicans 29.4 percent, “Others” 40 percent, and Greens and Libertarians combining for .007 percent. The poll’s margin of error is +/-4.6 percent.

Source: Dan Saban for Sheriff